inta6004-spring-2008
INTA 6004
Spring 2008
Modeling, Forecasting & Decision Making
Monday 6:00 – 9:00pm
Habersham G17
Dr. Michael L. Best
Office Hours: by appointment.
This is a dynamic syllabus; it is subject to change.
Please consult the T-Square for the latest version and listen for updates
during class meetings.
OVERVIEW
The purpose of this class is to give you an understanding of how to use computer simulations as a tool to address issues in international affairs. Computer simulations are computer programs that have at their core simplified models of our world. The different models vary in the degree and nature of their abstraction from the “real” world, but they share the goal of trying to help us better understand the complex structures and dynamics that we observe around us. Although simulations in international affairs are often used to make projections into the future, they should not be thought of as computerized “crystal balls.” Their best use is to augment and improve our thinking about how the world works by performing computational tasks for which our minds are ill-suited. In other words, we will use simulation sometimes for the purpose of prediction but other times for the purpose of description and explanation.
One component of this class will be to examine different models or modeling systems as examples of the quite different ways to do computer simulation in international affairs.
A second aspect of the class is that we will spend time learning how to use the STELLA software you will employ to make your own simulations. While STELLA is on all of the G-17 and Habersham lab computers, many students who have taken this class in the past have purchased their own student version of STELLA. You may wish to consider doing that.
The true core of
the class is the development of your own simulation model and research paper
reporting results from the model. There is nothing like making your own
simulation to understand how it should be done. You will learn how to think
in terms of dynamic processes, a useful skill.
There are a few
exercises through the progression of the class. Furthermore, you will be
required to lead two (or more) sections of the class through readings on
specific aspects of modeling for the social sciences. We will work together to
select these readings and will employ a simple taxonomy of system, sector, and
scale. By “system” I mean the type of simulation
process being employed (e.g. multiagent, discrete event, cellular automata). By
“sector” I mean what problem within the social sciences is being studied (e.g.
relations between nations, the War of 1812, internal dynamics within INTA). By “scale”
I mean what time-frame, geographic scale, and/or unit of analysis is principal
(e.g. a day, a generation, a person, a nation).
The culmination of the class is your presentation of your final (or near final) model and research paper describing it.
COURSE REQUIRMENTS
Participation (20%). Students are expected to attend all
classes, to have read all assigned material, to come to class with a deep
knowledge of the readings and modeling exercises along with questions and
comments in mind, and to participate actively in class discussions.
Intellectual curiosity is required.
In-class
presentation (10%). Each
student will serve as the instructor for two or more sections of the class.
During this period the student will come with a short presentation overviewing
that day’s topic and readings. After the presentation, the student will lead
the class in debate and a further consideration of the material. Two weeks
prior to the presentation date the reading list must be finalized; please work
with me over email to develop the list. One week prior to the presentation date
the readings must be made available to the entire class on the course wiki. In
addition, each student will give a short pre-proposal project presentation to
the class and a final project presentation.
Initial homework assignments (20%). While we begin to learn about modeling
and the Stella software I will assign a few homeworks that will introduce basic
concepts.
Research paper
proposal (20%). The paper
proposal will overview the intended research project and model, provide a
review of relevant literature and a bibliography, and describe a timeline of
execution. You are encouraged to work with me in developing your proposal.
Research paper (30%). The final paper will complete the work
described in the proposal. It must have a clearly stated research thesis,
background and related work, and a theoretical framework. The model must be
fully implemented in Stella and turned in along with the paper. The paper will
be evaluated on novelty, clarity, relevance, importance, and use of original
research. Students should follow the Instructions for Authors for the journal Information
Technologies and International Development; this paper will fall under the
“Research Reports” category. Please see http://mitpress.mit.edu/ITID.
NOTE ON LATE SUBMISSIONS
Incompletes will not be given for this course. All submissions lose half a grade for each day (or fraction) late. Missed in-class exams will be marked as zero. Approved absences and late submissions, or required incompletes, will be given appropriate accommodations.
STATEMENT ON ACADEMIC HONESTY
Students in this class are expected to abide by the Georgia
Tech Honor Code and avoid any instances of academic misconduct. In particular,
plagiarism of any sort, in any writing, will not be tolerated. A useful web
resource is: http://www.indiana.edu/~wts/wts/plagiarism.html. All students
should become familiar with this website and strictly adhere to these
proscriptions.
Plagiarizing is defined by Webster’s as “to steal and pass off (the ideas or
words of another) as one's own: use (another's production) without crediting
the source.”
If caught plagiarizing, you will be dealt with according to the GT Academic
Honor Code.
For any questions involving these or any other Academic Honor Code issues,
please consult me or www.honor.gatech.edu.